In this article, we delve into the burgeoning economic ties between China, a pivotal member of the BRICS bloc, and Africa, which have marked a significant milestone by achieving a trade volume of $282.1 billion in 2023. This figure not only underscores China’s role as Africa’s foremost trading partner but also illustrates a shift in global trade dynamics, with China surpassing the European Union in this regard. This modest 1.5% growth from the previous year signals a continued trajectory of increasing trade relations, driven by robust contributions from key African nations such as South Africa, Angola, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Nigeria stands out as the top consumer of Chinese goods, emblematic of the deepening trade relationships.
The African Export-Import Bank highlights a crucial shift, pointing out that Asia, led by significant trade activities between Africa and BRICS founding members China and India, has emerged as Africa’s principal trading partner. This evolution is reflective of a broader trend where African nations, amidst the economic challenges faced by the European Union, are increasingly turning to Asia for trade and investment. The region’s dynamic economic growth, powered by technological innovation and expanding manufacturing sectors, positions it as a vital source of imports for Africa, ranging from machinery and electronics to vehicles and plastic materials.
The expansion of the BRICS bloc, with the anticipated inclusion of new members such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates in 2024, is poised to amplify its global economic influence further. This development is welcomed across Africa, promising greater representation and a more substantial voice for the continent in international affairs. The addition of Ethiopia and Egypt is particularly strategic, ensuring a wider African representation within BRICS and potentially enhancing Africa’s stature on the global stage.
Economically, the enlargement of BRICS is expected to significantly boost the bloc’s share in global GDP, oil production, and exports, highlighting its pivotal role in international trade. This expansion not only demonstrates the strengthening economic partnership between BRICS and Africa but also aligns with Africa’s aspirations to reform the global order, address development hurdles, and mitigate the high costs of capital.
China’s investment strategy in Africa, exemplified by over $1.8 billion of direct investment in the first half of 2023 alone, marks a year-on-year increase of 4.4 percent. This sustained investment showcases China’s commitment to fostering bilateral cooperation and development, encompassing a broad spectrum of sectors from traditional industries like construction and mining to emerging fields such as digital economy and clean energy.
The infrastructure projects spearheaded by Chinese companies, valued at over $400 billion, significantly contribute to Africa’s development trajectory, aligning with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This initiative aims to enhance global connectivity and promote economic development, with Africa being a critical focus area. China’s status as Africa’s top trading partner for over a decade further emphasizes the strategic nature of Sino-African economic relations.
Data from the China Africa Research Initiative illustrates the dramatic growth in Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa, from $75 million in 2003 to $5 billion in 2021. This surge in investment underscores China’s strategic interests across various African countries, contributing significantly to their economic growth and development.
The diversification of African economies, driven by Chinese investment, promises reduced dependence on European markets and aid, offering a pathway towards sustainable growth and economic resilience. Furthermore, the development of critical infrastructure can enhance intra-African connectivity and trade, essential for the continent’s long-term independence and global economic integration.
However, the path to full independence from former colonizers like the European Union involves multifaceted challenges beyond economic measures. Governance, political stability, and legal frameworks also play crucial roles in this endeavor. The European Union, recognizing the strategic importance of Africa amidst China’s growing influence, has launched initiatives like the Global Gateway strategy, pledging significant investment to counterbalance China’s BRI and deepen ties with African nations.
Prospect of Relationship between BRICS and Africa
The prospects of trade between Africa and China in 2024 appear bright and promising, with several developments expected to further deepen the cooperation between the two regions. According to Erastus Mwencha, former deputy chairperson of the African Union Commission, China’s diplomacy has made significant strides in 2023, with notable achievements including a peace deal brokered between Saudi Arabia and Iran, demonstrating China’s growing influence on the global stage. China has also been active in promoting initiatives aimed at supporting Africa’s industrialization and agricultural development strategies, which reflects its commitment to fostering a strong partnership with Africa【23†source】.
The ninth Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), due to take place in Beijing, is anticipated to be a key event for furthering relations in 2024. The forum is expected to offer numerous opportunities for Chinese venture capital to invest in the continent, building upon the commitments secured during the eighth FOCAC in Dakar, Senegal. Despite challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic and narratives around China’s lending practices, there is optimism for an even busier year in China-Africa relations. The re-engagement of China on economic growth in Africa, focusing on more concessional lending in sectors like energy and transport, investments in value addition and manufacturing, and finalizing new export agreements for African products to China, are expected to be key areas of cooperation【24†source】.
Furthermore, data from the China Africa Research Initiative highlights the steady increase in China-Africa bilateral trade over the past two decades. Despite disruptions caused by COVID-19, trade value between China and Africa bounced back in 2021 to US$251 billion. South Africa, Angola, and the Democratic Republic of Congo were the largest exporters to China from Africa, while Nigeria remained the largest buyer of Chinese goods【25†source】.
In conclusion, the prospects for trade between Africa and China in 2024 are robust, underpinned by China’s active diplomatic efforts, upcoming high-level forums such as FOCAC, and a solid foundation of growing trade and investment ties. The focus on economic growth, industrialization, agricultural modernization, and the promotion of digital economy and clean energy are expected to further deepen the cooperation between China and Africa.
The evolving dynamics between Africa, China, and the broader international community, particularly the BRICS bloc and the European Union, present a complex web of economic and strategic interests. As Africa navigates these relationships, the continent’s future in the global order and its quest for economic and political autonomy remain subjects of keen international observation and analysis.